Via Realty for Tucson Az Real Estate

Oh Say Can You See?

2011-02-13T08:21:00.012-07:00

Have you noticed the new street signs that are sprouting up all over town? The ones with the little bitty letters on them? Well the new design comes courtesy of the Federal Government!

In a flash of helpful creativity, the Highway Safety people in Washington deemed it necessary to mandate that all new street signs be in upper and lower case to "make them more readable" because "studies showed" that words with both upper and lower case "were easier to read" (Even if the letters are made smaller to accommodate this new style?)

The problem is that with this mandate, the street signs are not being replaced with larger signs to allow for larger letters, and the result is a stylish sign that is now harder to read. This mandate by the way, comes at a time when cities and states are broke, or fast running out of money. And the new sign mandate comes at no small cost. All because a committee of "experts" suggested this style change to a government agency. And the agency ran with the new idea.

Maybe someone at the Highway Safety Administration thought that ALL CAPS street signs was SHOUTING and of course, we couldn't have that.

Links:

USA Today

KHON Honolulu

NY Daily News

One Short Sale Experience with FNMA

2011-02-12T09:58:00.008-07:00

Last year I listed a home in central Tucson which ended up with a contract for a short sale. (A short sale is a sale at a price that will not cover the payoff of the existing mortgage). The foreclosure process had begun.

Per the contract for a short sale, the inspection period would not start until we received a notice of approval of the short sale from the asset manager for the mortgage holder (investor). As a rule, buyers do not want to spend money on inspections and an appraisal if they do not know if they can actually buy the home, so that is a condition in a short sale contract.

The contract price was $185K.

Long story short, after about 2 months from receipt of the buyer's contract, the asset manager finally told us that FNMA approved the sale but would only give us one week to close, if not, the home would be sold at auction. The Buyer, with little time for inspections, appraisal, and title work, cancelled the contract. FNMA took the home back.

Almost four months later, the new owner, FNMA, put the home back on the market for 189,900. After languishing on the market for a few months, with several price reductions, it is currently priced near 170K, still without a buyer. This is almost seven months after the home could have been sold for $185K, in July 2010. Seven months of mortgage payments lost, seven months of interest lost.

In fairness, the bank asset managers and FNMA have a big job to do, and are clearly overworked and over-extended. There is not enough staff available to do this important job. But situations like this do avoidable damage to our market and neighborhoods. There have been steps taken to streamline the process but it does not seem too evident to me. Buyers should have a reasonable opportunity to buy a property from a distressed seller without unnecessary roadblocks and delays from the system.

It just seems too easy to take back a property and sell it for less, months later.

Another Reason Not To Live in New York

2011-02-12T09:40:00.003-07:00

Reading the Wall Street Journal today, I came upon an interesting article regarding a recent tax case in New York State. It seems that an administrative law judge has found that "vacation homes" in the state are de facto evidence that the homeowner is a resident of New York, regardless of how much time that vacation home owner spends in New York! That means that the out of state home owner is liable for New York income taxes, even if the home owner has not stepped into the home all year! Solution: Sell your New York cottage and buy a winter home in Tucson. No tax penalty here (yet!)

Cash for Clunkers

2009-08-06T11:03:00.005-06:00

I was at a dinner party last night and the subject of the popular Cash for Clunkers" came up. A sure fire subsidy for the car manufacturers, the program has instantly boosted sales for the moribund auto industry and has allowed people to trade in their less energy efficient car for a brand new one while enjoying up to $4500 from the government for a down payment.

One of the guests at the party was a technician who works in a local auto shop. He was quite animated in his opposition to the program, primarily because of the waste. You see, when a new car buyer brings in his clunker for trade, the dealership is instructed to drain the oil out of the car, then pour a silica (sand) product into the engine and run it until it quits, effectively "euthanizing" the car. The car is then crushed and sold for scrap.

Not only does this program, in many cases, eliminate a perfectly good car from the marketplace, it also eliminates the opportunity to recycle parts from the car, which of course includes a motor (which might run cleaner than one that it could replace) doors, side panels, alternators, bumpers, radiators, mirrors, wheels, gas tanks, trunk lids, chassis, etc. The waste, he said, is appalling and to label this project as "green" is simply a lie.

Many industries are being given subsidies these days: banks, investment houses, the auto industry and yes, even the real estate industry, with the current $8000 tax credit. If the real estate tax credit program was run in the same manner as "Cash for Clunkers", they would be bulldozing a "clunker" (old?) house with no salvage allowed for every subsidized home sold. That wouldn't be right, and "Cash for Clunkers" isn't right either, especially from a "green" perspective.

What do you think?

Ham Radio Antennas

2009-03-30T09:30:00.002-06:00

Todays Az Daily Star had an editorial regarding a recent bill being produced in the AZ State legislature that would allow "reasonable accomodation" for ham radio antennas in neighborhoods governed by HOAs. They came out against the bill.

As you know, I am a real estate broker. I am also a ham radio operator.

A few years ago, I represented a ham operator in the purchase of a town house that was regulated by an HOA. We negotiated with the HOA board to allow a small VHF antenna on the home. We provided a reasonable explanation of the hobby, the public safety aspects and included a picture of the antenna and its dimensions.

The board granted, in writing, permission for my client to erect the antenna, so he bought the place.

It is unfortunate that these days, if someone wants to buy a newer home, it is almost inevitable that it will be governed by a HOA. The power that these associations have over people should be regulated.

Rather than some blanket prohibition, which I believe that many HOA boards insist on, there should be "reasonable accommodation" for certain things. Solar power, clothes lines and yes, ham radio antennas. I believe that this bill is a step in the right direction.

Sewer Fee Update!

2009-02-19T12:46:00.003-07:00

This just in from the Tucson Association of Realtors:

Waste Water Fees

At the last Public Affairs Committee meeting the members voted to support Option C of Pima County Wastewater's proposal to raise wastewater fees. On Tuesday the Board of Supervisors voted to adopt Option C as well but are still interested in raising the connection fee which was part of Option D. The four options are laid out below.

• Option A - Increase the volume rate assessed to all customers by 16.75% ($2.81) as early as possible in 2009, by 16.75% ($3.28) in July of 2009 and by 16.75% ($3.83) in January of 2010.

• Option B - Increase the volume rate assessed to all customers by 25.25% ($4.24) as early as possible in 2009, by 9.25% ($1.95) in July of 2009 and by 9.25% ($2.13) in January of 2010.

• Option C- Increase the fixed monthly service fee assessed to all customers by $1.50 and increase the volume rate by 12.75% ($2.14) as early as possible in 2009. Increase the volume rate by 12.75% ($2.41) in July of 2009 and increase the fixed monthly service fee by $1.50 and increase the volume rate by 12.75% ($2.72) in January of 2010.

• Option D - Increase the fixed monthly service fee assessed to all customers by $1.50 and increase the volume rate by 12.75% ($2.14) and increase connection fees by 4% as early as possible in 2009. Increase the volume rate by 12.75% ($2.41) in July of 2009 and increase the fixed monthly service fee by $1.50 and increase the volume rate by 12.75% ($2.72) in January of 2010.

Why Own a Home?

2009-01-24T12:08:00.004-07:00

To me, the big motivator for home ownership is lifestyle: privacy, personal enjoyment, and self expression, with a bonus of shelter. With a rental, you get shelter. When you own a home you get more.

My home is worth less than it was two years ago but I still enjoy living here, I am happy that I don't have to ask anyone's permission to hang my photo gallery, paint the interior green, tear up the carpet and replace with tile, or radically change the landscaping. I can stay here for as long as I can make the payments. Someday I will own it outright.

If everything was only about the bottom line, no one would ever buy that fancy red sports car in the showroom, a student's artwork at a school gallery, or that little red brick 1950's charmer on the corner.

The real bottom line is: If you found the place you want, can afford it and you plan on sticking around for a while, go ahead and buy it. Life is too short to live in someone else's house if you don't have to.

Time to Buy?

2009-01-24T06:37:00.004-07:00

I have noticed some discussions lately about market timing and our housing market. Some have said that it would be smart to wait for the "bottom" before committing to a purchase. Even if you could predict when the bottom will occur (you can't) there is more to that equation.

For anyone contemplating a home purchase, it is also important for them to factor in the cost of financing in that decision and their ability to pay at that rate.

If I can afford the home I want and have a time horizon longer than a year or two, what difference does it make if I buy at the bottom or a year (or two) early?

Just as home prices can go down, mortgage rates can go up. Today's rates are at historic lows. Buying a home now at a fixed rate that is affordable sounds smart to me.

I bought my first home in 1974, in the midst of a recession during the oil embargo. I was too dumb to know that it was a bad time to buy a house (I was only 21) I was not a speculator, just a kid who wanted a place of his own to live. My time horizon was very long. Never heard of the concept of "flipping". I just liked the idea of no landlord. Although sometimes it was a struggle, I was able to make the payments. Needless to say, I did OK with that house.

I am glad that there was no 24/7 media to talk me out of that purchase in 1974. Although the bottom may not be here yet. there are some good deals out there right now. If you are planning on hanging around the Old Pueblo for a while, buying that home you want and can afford might be a smart thing to do.

Shipping Container Homes!

2009-01-22T08:15:00.001-07:00

This is a very interesting concept from a recycling as well as an archetectural standpoint...

Save Rillito Race Track

2009-01-18T04:33:00.041-07:00

On Saturday I detoured to the track during a relaxed stroll with a friend down the Rillito River Walk. When we arrived the official at the ticket gate told me that over 10,000 people were there (she had a counter-clicker) and there were still more streaming in. The parking lot was full of cars.

We sat in the grandstand which appeared to be solid (it's steel) and in no danger of collapsing. The overall cosmetic condition was poor, the windows had cobwebs, the bench seats (with backs!) needed painting, as did the rest of the place, but despite the County's neglect, everyone was having a great time, whether in the grandstand or close up, on the rail watching the beautiful horses run by at top speed.

The Catalina mountains are perfectly framed in the big glass window array of the grandstand. The large grassy infield sports 4 soccer areas with goals, so the site serves more than one purpose.

I signed a petition to save this historic landmark. The public should get on board too to preserve this 1940's era part of our heritage before it is leveled and sold to the highest bidder. As one petition signer said to me, "This place belongs to the people, not the Board of Supervisors". I agree.

The Phone is Ringing

2009-01-16T08:26:00.010-07:00

Recently I wrote about "The January Effect" where I described the historic trend in our Real Estate market place where sales activity increased after the new year started. This has been vividly demonstrated to me this week with a ringing phone from buyers calling on our listings and happily, an offer that was negotiated to a contract on one of them.

It is good to set aside all of the doom and gloom for a while and just do our work. In my business, there are people out there who recognise the opportunities in our market place (lowered prices and historic low interest rates) and are acting on it. Things will be better in the months to come.

Tucson is a great place to live. Lots of people know this. I received an e-mail from a friend in Indiana this morning and he said that it was minus 35F there today! I am taking our sunshine dividend to the bank, knowing that Tucson will continue to grow, probably at a faster pace than some other parts of the country, and our real estate market will recover. And the weather is better here. That's one of the blessings that should be on our counting list.

Check Your Auto License Plate Frame!

2008-12-28T14:58:00.007-07:00

A new law will come into effect on Jan 1 2009 which you should be aware of. Here are the details from the AZ DOT Motor Vehicle Division:

License Plate Holder Law - State law* requires that the state name at the top of Arizona license plates must be visible. Any license plate holder or cover that prevents the license plate from being clearly legible, is in violation of this new law.
* A.R.S. 28-2354(B.)

Fines in Pima County could be up to $133 per violation! Other municipalities may have different fines. In a casual survey around my neighborhood, a majority of the vehicles that I inspected have license plate frames that violate this law. It is a simple thing to remove the plate and frame and re-attach the license without the frame or use a new frame that does not obscure the information on the license plate.

In another "fine" matter, Before the U of A vs ASU football game a few weeks ago, I spied City of Tucson workers busily citing parking law violators in the Sam Hughes neighborhood. Did you know that you may not park within 5 feet of a driveway entrance or 10 feet from an alley entrance? If you didn't know this, you could be surprised with a $180 parking ticket. Beware!

The January Effect

2008-12-22T17:25:00.005-07:00

Chart: Total Sales Units vs Month 2004-2008

When one looks at the Tucson MLS statistics, an interesting pattern is quite evident. In the past 4 years, closed sales numbers hit bottom in January, then begin to climb again in February and March, peaking within the next few months.

The peak occurred in June in 2004, 2005 and 2006, with sales numbers March, April and May not far behind. The peak in 2007 occurred in May, but the numbers for February March and April were also not far behind. The numbers for 2008, while down considerably from previous years, had a significant percentage jump in February and March, peaking in June with 1034 closed sales, slightly behind May which had 1,025 closed sales.

Since there is a lead time between when a buyer looks at and decides to make an offer on a home and the closing, (lets say 45 days for argument's sake) you might conclude that it would be wise to have your home on the market in January to catch those buyers and the others that follow in February, March and April. I would agree with that conclusion.

Interest rates are now at historic lows, there is a "First Time Buyer" Federal tax credit available through April 2009 (as much as $7500 for married buyers who file jointly and $3750 for those married or not who file individually) Inventory has been reduced considerably since last year. History points to an improved market in the early part of this year, compared with the previous months, although the actual numbers may still be below last years, YTD. Regardless, a window of opportunity is opening for those who want to sell their home now, and January is the time to begin.

Census Releases Growth Figures. AZ in 2nd Place!

2008-12-22T17:09:00.005-07:00

This just in from the US Census , Arizona comes in second, behind Nevada in population growth (percentage wise) since 2000. adding almost 1.4 million souls in that time frame.

Arizona's actual growth in population (not percentages) since July 1 2007 was 147,000, fifth behind Texas, California, North Carolina, and Georgia. Here is a link.

Check out These Homes

2008-12-05T10:13:00.007-07:00

One of the ways that we promote our client's listings is to design and publish e-flyers. Here are three of our most recent ones:

2005 4 BR 2 BA Home for under $100 per Square Foot!

Big East Central House with Guest House!

Cute East Side 3BR with RV Parking!

They have been submitted to Oodle, Google Base, Vast, Yahoo, HotPads, Trulia, Zillow, Geebo, OLX, Backpage, DotHomes, CyberHomes, FrontDoor, and others, to get the maximum web exposure possible.

Thought you would find this interesting!

More Good News

2008-12-04T06:57:00.002-07:00

More good mortgage news from the Federal Government. In a move to further push mortgage rates down, and stimulate the housing market, Treasury Secretary Paulson is considering a new plan to reduce mortgage rates. Further implementing the purchase of mortgage backed securities, the move could push rates to 4.5%, according to an unnamed government official. Here is more from Bloomberg News.

We have seen substantial reduction in mortgage loan rates in the past two weeks, one lender we follow had a Dec 2 quote of 5.25%, APR 5.404% for a 30 year fixed conventional loan and 4.875%, 5.135% for a fixed 15 year conventional mortgage!

Refinances are gaining steam and despite the cloudy take in the article, lenders do have money to lend and are offering it to qualified buyers with decent credit.

This is a big opportunity for someone who has been sitting on the fence waiting for a good reason to buy a home.

Change is Here

2008-11-13T10:26:00.003-07:00

Well a lot has happened since my last post. We have elected a new president, the financial markets are in a tizzy and yet interest rates and the local housing market have been better than what many people might expect.

A local lender e-mailed me his rate card yesterday an it showed that there has been a downward move in the 30 year fixed conforming mortgage to 5.875 with an APR just over 6% @ 6.035. 15 year checking in at 5.5% with an APR of 5.765%. This is cheap mortgage money!

I remember when I started in the real estate business in 1989 and we were praying for single digit rates. It took a while for that to happen. The market was terrible, with the collapse of the S&L industry, the RTC properties flooding the market, IBM moving out of Tucson and difficult credit policies. Deja vu with a twist! As we got through those challenges, we will go through this one too.

The Tucson Association of Realtors came out with a new statistics report for October and although showing a slight decrease in sales since Oct 2007, it also shows a 4.16% increase in sales price over Sept 08. Listing inventory is slightly higher, but well below a year ago, which is good, since it lowers competition for your listing. The report is available on our web site. Click on the "Market Report" to view the pdf document.

Yesterday I viewed about a dozen properties in the central city. One thing that I noticed is that the properties that were priced right were being shown by agents who were working with buyers. Two things: pricing is key to activity and there are buyers out there!

Finally, with a new administration coming in next year, it might be wise to schedule an appointment with your tax person or CPA to get an early start on a strategy in the event that there are changes in tax policy. Currently we enjoy a $250K exemption in capital gains on the sale of a primary residence ($500K for married couples) This could change. Also, keep an eye on any proposed changes in the capital gains rate for investment properties.

Despite all of the negativity out there, I still see positive things ahead for our marketplace. Tucson is a great place to live, the weather is marvelous and Arizona is still a net gainer in population. We have the U of A and DM, not to mention Raytheon. There are buyers out there, some with cash. (We closed on a cash buyer last month who relocated to Tucson) Home prices are stabilizing and if you are a buyer, there are some great deals out there for you. I am counting my blessings.

Words of Wisdom

2008-04-30T09:05:00.004-06:00

A few days ago, I had to drop off my car at the shop. Rather than take a taxi or enlist a friend for a ride home, I decided to walk. Holy Hope cemetery was near my route, so I took a slight detour through this old Tucson landmark. It's a peaceful place, with huge trees and cool, moist grass. It is also the resting place for many of Tucson's famous and not so famous pioneers.

I have always enjoyed looking at old headstones. It's a perfect way to get a bit of history and sometimes to find some wisdom. I found both that morning.

During my walk, I encountered the grave site of Clyde Wanslee. Mr Wanslee, who died in 1984 at the age of 70, had a car dealership located at the 5 Points intersection south of Downtown. The thing that I remember most about this car lot was his sign "Ugly but Honest" This lot was a fixture in the Tucson landscape for many years, and Clyde sold a lot of cars.

One thing that I learned at Mr Wanslee's grave site was that he was a champion cowboy.

And now for the wisdom: This was also engraved on Mr Wanslee's headstone:

"A good name is more desirable than great riches. To be esteemed is better than silver or gold". Prov 22-1

RIP Mr Wanslee. Thanks for the reminder.

Tucson a "Bicycle Friendly" Town!

2008-03-24T07:57:00.002-06:00

The League of American Bicyclists named Tucson and Pima County as "Bicycle Friendly" giving the region a "gold" rating for education, engineering, enforcement and encouragement of bicycle oriented issues. Here is a link.

FICO and CLUE

2008-03-13T08:08:00.003-06:00

What are FICO and CLUE? When you hang out with real estate people, you will hear a lot of lingo or jargon. Two very important words that often appear in real estate conversations these days are FICO and CLUE, and it is helpful for you to be CLUED-in to make your real estate experience more successful.

FICO®

This is from myfico.com:
FICO® scores are your credit rating.
They range from 300-850, higher is better
Most lenders base approval on them
Higher scores mean lower interest rates
FICO® scores are calculated based on your rating in five general categories:
Payment history, amount owed, length of credit history, new credit, types of credit used.
For the full scoop, go to myfico.com.

CLUE® Reports

CLUE reports are insurance history reports on losses associated with personal property. Of particular interest are losses due to water damage in a home. CLUE reports are important to home buyers and sellers. A home with a bad CLUE report will be hard to insure, and as a result, hard to sell, and to buy. It is very important to know about this issue and prepare your purchase contract with this as a contingency when you are purchasing a home. This from Choice Trust:
"The C.L.U.E. ®Personal Property report provides a five year history of losses associated with an individual and his/her personal property. The following data will be identified for each loss: date of loss, loss type, and amount paid along with general information such as policy number, claim number and insurance company name. " For more info click here!

New, Higher Limits for FHA Insured Loans!

2008-03-07T11:49:00.006-07:00

The department of Housing and Urban Development recently announced new maximum mortgage limits for FHA insured residential home loans. The new limit for Pima County is $316,250. This is good news for home buyers who are looking for a low down payment loan with somewhat less stringent underwriting criteria. Some lenders are offering down payment assistance programs with FHA insured financing. This allows home sellers to contribute towards buyers down payment and closing costs with full documentation qualifying. The limits were raised in other parts of the country, as high as $729,750, reflecting the higher prices for homes since the last FHA limit adjustment. This is great news for everyone in the real estate markets since it will make it easier for home buyers to secure low down payment FHA financing and will also help home sellers sell their homes if they are priced at or below the new maximum limits.

Clouds of Southern Arizona

2008-02-28T05:49:00.007-07:00

These Cloud formations were encountered while on the Middlemarch Road in Western Cochise County, near Dragoon, AZ. Taken around noon, the temperature was a balmy 65F. After seeing the weather reports from the North East, it almost seemed unfair....

This is a shot of a "Century Plant" what I believe to be known as "Agave Parryi" described here by the experts at the Arizona Sonora Desert Museum.

Some of the clouds are what meteorologists describe as "lenticular" created by stable, moist airflow over mountains. Science aside, they are beautiful!

Here is a great view of a lenticular cloud. Notice the lens-like rings around it...

These smooth-edged clouds are an unusual sight. At least to this native of Southern Arizona!

Just another day in Paradise!

If you have any cool cloud shots that you would like to share, shoot me an e-mail!

Wayne

Townhomes and Condos!

2008-02-14T09:38:00.003-07:00

We have been looking at a lot of town homes and condos with clients who are interested in leaving their yardwork behind and purchasing a home that offers more leisure time in exchange for a monthly Homeowners Association fee. Such fees cover common grounds maintenance and insurance and sometimes water, roof and other items.

Town homes and condos may also be a good choice for parents who want their scholar to study instead of pulling weeds in the yard of a college investment property. Some of these properties offer garages and security which enable you to leave the property for extended periods of time, a perfect scenerio for Snowbirds.

We recently listed two affordable properties, one a condo one a townhome. Both are fixups and one, although it is a town home, has no association fee. See them here and here.

If you are looking for something bigger or better, here is a link to out Town Home/ Condo search page .

There is a lot to know when looking at a town home or condo. You need to check out the bylaws and covenants as well as the financial health of the association, to avoid problems with the HOA or being stuck with an unexpected assessment. We can help you navigate this territory.

Is Tucson Recession Proof?

2008-02-10T10:28:00.000-07:00

In an opinion piece in todays Arizona Daily Star, Economist Richard Carlson has an optimistic view of Tucson's future economic prospects. While outlining the excesses in the real estate markets of a few years ago, Carlson believes that Tucson's economic foursome of DM, the U of A, Hi Tech and retirees will keep our city in the black, even if other parts of the country suffer a recession. He is predicting a growing local real estate market by 2009 and another Baby Boomer "boom" by 2012. Here is a link to the article.

In light of today's near record low mortgage interest rates, the huge selection of homes available and motivated sellers who are offering incentives, perhaps it would be prudent to buy the home you want now, at an affordable price and rate. The alternative is trying to catch the bottom, while risking paying more for your dream home and gambling on tomorrow's mortgage market. If you consider the long term, buying now may be the best plan.

Million Dollar Home Tour

2008-01-25T07:59:00.000-07:00

Yesterday I spent the greater part of the afternoon touring some of the finest homes offered for sale in the Northeast area of Tucson. Asking prices ranged from $1.4 million to almost $3 million. The homes sizes ranged from about 4400 to 7800 square feet. All but one had 5 bedrooms and at least 4 baths.

Most of these homes are of fairly recent vintage and are fully equipped for comfortable, modern life. A few offer horse facilities, with corrals and barns while others boast unparalleled city views that stretch into Mexico.

The lots for these homes are generous, ranging from 3.3 acres to over 7. Lots of privacy here!

Construction was varied, from rammed earth to stuccoed double adobe to modern frame stucco. Flooring was also eclectic. I saw large format Saltillo, natural stone, gleaming hardwood and polished concrete. There was something for everyone.

Most of these homes have a Southwestern flavor and the styles were typically Santa-Fe with a couple of exceptions. One home that was literally nestled in the arms of the Catalina mountains offered a modern, contemporary style that would be comfortable anywhere in the world, but distinguished itself for the Sunbelt lifestyle with a wrap-around porch where one could follow the Sun and catch 100 mile views.

All of the homes offered outstanding guest facilities, some more elaborate than others. All were of a style visitors would be hard pressed to leave. Typically included was office space, upgraded kitchens, dining areas and multiple bedrooms. One even boasted a screened room for pets and people! These are the guest houses, mind you!

Two of the seven homes that I saw seemed to offer the best value. If you would like to have my opinion regarding the winners on this tour, give me a call or an e-mail and we can talk about finding your place in the Sun.

Here is a link to the properties that I saw.

Fed Makes Sharpest Cut Since 1984

2008-01-23T08:35:00.000-07:00

In an effort to put some energy into the economy, the federal reserve cut the prime rate by a hefty 3/4% to 3.5%.Who wins and who loses? Here is a link to Yahoo Finance that has one take on the story.

Short Sales, Foreclosures and You

2007-12-15T06:42:00.000-07:00

I attended a 2 day series of classes this week that outlined the pitfalls and advantages of short sales and forclosures to the homeowner, lender and real estate broker. There is a lot of misunderstanding in the marketplace regarding these issues and the time was well spent.

According to the media, there has been an "explosion" of foreclosures in our marketplace. This is not necessarily the case. The average percentage of defaulted loans in Arizona since the early nineties has been about 1.5% of the total mortgages, now it is about 3%. Of course, that is a 100% increase in defaults, but the media neglects to mention that 97% of the borrowers out there are still current with their loans. Of course, things may get worse, but let's save the bleak headlines for when (and if) it really gets bad.

Another misconception is that the main cause of all of the secondary loan market problems are non-performing loans (defaults) Not true. The primary problem that lenders have encountered is a lack of liquidity. Managers of retirement funds, insurance company portfolios and others who have traditionally invested in mortgages are now holding back and are reducing their exposure to mortgage backed securities.

The current solution to this crisis is to "freeze" adjustable rates for some sub-prime borrowers. My question to you is: Do you think that government tinkering with mortgage yields will help or harm the secondary mortgage market? Will an investor want to buy a mortgage if the yield can be arbitrarily changed by the government, in the name of rate relief for the consumer? I think not.

So what is a "Short Sale"? A short sale is a sale of a home for less than the mortgage that encumbers it. The Seller will net no money in the sale. The lender will not agree to a short sale if the seller has other assets (IRA, other property, etc) Properties that are listed in the MLS as a "short sale" may not necessarily sell for the price that it is listed for since the lender has to sign off on the deal. Response times can be long. It is not a sure thing. There is a lot of homework for the seller and listing broker to do, and you may not know how far along they are in the process when you make your offer.

So how many properties are involved in "short sales" here in Tucson? Let's look at central Tucson for now. According to the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS, since June 18th 2007, there are currently 19 single family homes listed as "short sales," 5 more with offers on them, 4 "Expired," 7 sold, and 23 withdrawn or released. These are not huge numbers, but bear watching. I will later post the numbers for all of the MLS.

Next Post: Foreclosures!

New Marana Flood Rate Maps Delayed

2007-12-15T04:17:00.000-07:00

FEMA has announced that the agency will delay the issuance of new flood rate maps for the Marana area pending further study. Here is a link courtesy of the Town of Marana.

The Future is Boomer!

2007-12-08T21:08:00.000-07:00

Despite recent news reports, home prices are not "plunging" in Tucson. Although we have seen significant reductions in asking prices all over town and there is a big inventory of homes available on the market, especially newer homes, it is not time to give up.

New homeowners here who can hold on to their homes for the long term and those who buy now with the expectation of living in their home for the next 5 to 10 years should be OK, because frankly, Southern Arizona is a better place to live than the Rust belt, Snow belt, Florida or California. Freezing, retiring Boomers are coming, and they have their parents money as well as their own to spend. This will help our market.

Some people ask: “How can the Boomers move here if they cannot sell their existing homes?” People all over the United States, even in this slow market, are selling their houses, although sometimes at prices that are lower than they expected. We are not in a "no houses are selling" market, just a slow market after a big up tick. Interestingly, the National Association of Realtors once defined a "stable market" as having 180 day market time, something we have not seen here in years. Perhaps we are a little spoiled.

The Boomer generation is massive, not just what uninformed skeptics call "few old people.” Those future retirees who have not mortgaged themselves to their eyeballs have a lot of accumulated wealth. According to an ABC news story, median household wealth for boomers is estimated to be $600,000. Many of these Boomers will come here to live.

I am optimistic about Southern Arizona’s future for several other reasons. Our community has a great University, excellent hospitals, and a friendly population. Houses are still cheaper here than in in many west and east coast cities. Canada is another wild card: with a strong Loonie (Canadian Dollar) an aging population and a generally unpleasant climate many will choose to buy a winter home here. Until you have lived in the Snow belt (and I have) you will never value a Tucson winter as much as a snowbird.

A final observation:: Some of these "old people" will bring skills, expertise and abilities that will vitalize our community. The days of the geezer on the front porch are diminishing fast. Seniors are increasingly adept with technology and will bring a lot to the table, even in their last years on this planet. I welcome them here.

Opportunity Knocks for Canadians!

2007-12-08T20:11:00.000-07:00

In a recent article in the Edmonton Journal, Brian Wruk, co-author of The Canadian Snowbird in America says that "all of the moons are aligned" for Albertans (and other Canadians as well!) to buy property in Arizona. The "moons" are 1) a strong Canadian Dollar (called the Loonie) 2) a soft housing market in Arizona, and 3) the frigid temperatures in Canada. Wruk thinks that the bottom may not yet be here, but I have not yet known of anyone who has been able to accurately forecast a market bottom, or a top, for that matter. The Canadian dollar is now above "par" vs the greenback when only a few years ago it was only worth 64 cents US. This strength in the Loonie is not a forever sure thing, as the current market numbers show, but it is still remarkable. Combine this with the recent drop in asking prices in most markets in Arizona, this does in fact look like a great opportunity for Canadians to purchase a home here. And the weather in Tucson is (usually) great.

Mortgage Rates Decline to 2 year Low!

2007-12-07T21:33:00.000-07:00

30-Year Mortgage Rates Fall to 2-Year Low Concerns that a severe housing downturn and prolonged credit crisis could rattle consumer confidence and hurt the broader economy contributed to a sharp drop in mortgage rates this week, according to Freddie Mac. Interest on 30-year fixed loans sank to 5.96 percent from 6.10 percent last week, landing at the lowest point seen since September 2005.Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed products fell to 5.65 percent from 5.73 percent over the week and five-year adjustable-rate mortgages were down to 5.75 percent from 5.86 percent, but one-year ARMs bucked the southward trend by bumping up to 5.46 percent from 5.43 percent. "With lower consumer spending and personal income gains in October, interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities fell lower this week and mortgage rates followed," said Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft. Source: Baltimore Sun (12/07/07)

Snowbirds: Is Florida Out?

2007-11-16T09:14:00.000-07:00

A Canadian friend e-mailed this link to me today. It's a story from the Toronto Star outlining the apparent reluctance of Canadian Snowbirds to commit to the purchase of Florida real estate now despite the abundance of properties for sale, a big decline in prices and a historic upsurge in the Canadian dollar or "Loonie." Reasons cited were the general negativity of the local professionals and press regarding Florida's real estate market, excessive insurance rates for coastal properties due to the threat of future hurricanes, and an unfair tax structure for non-resident owners of Florida real estate.

This bodes well for Arizona. Unlike Florida, non resident owners of real estate here are not punished at tax time, we have no hurricanes, and hazard insurance rates in Southern Arizona, although climbing, are not anywhere near what Floridians are paying. We also have an abundance of real estate for sale, and prices have dropped to more reasonable levels since 2005. This is a great time to buy, and sellers are more motivated than ever.

And the Sun shines here a lot! (over 300 days a year!)

So to my Canadian friends I say: Take a look at Tucson. Your Loonie goes a long way here. Bring your golf clubs too. Find out what Tiger already knows: Tucson is a great golf city as well.

Marana Buyers Beware!

2007-10-31T08:48:00.000-06:00

There has been a lot of worry and confusion lately over FEMA's remapping the flood plain designations of a large area of Marana. The bottom line is this: If your home sits in a designated flood zone, your lender may require that you purchase flood insurance. The implications are huge, involving flood insurance fees that will be tacked on to homeowners (who have mortgages) monthly mortgage payments. Even if a homeowner paid cash for their home and has no mortgage that requires flood insurance, this new development will affect the resale of their home, since lender-required flood insurance may take potential buyers who require mortgages out of the running. The new monthly payment, which will include flood insurance, may make their payment higher than what they qualify for. Here is a link to Marana's floodplain page.

Opportunity Knocks or Another reason not to read the newspaper

2007-08-31T13:53:00.000-06:00

The media helped inflate the "boom" in 2005 by urging buyers to pay whatever the Seller was asking or more, require no home inspections, and request no repairs in their offers. Now they are telling us that the market is going to Hell in a handbasket. Stories like this are why I no longer own a TV and rarely read the local papers.

Citing a nearly insignificant .29% drop in homes prices in Arizona last quarter and an even smaller .07% drop for Tucson, Capital Media services reporter Howard Fischer claims in an Aug 31 2007 Arizona Daily Star story that this drop of what would be about $580 in the price of a $200,000 home is “Good News for buyers” but signifies a “cold” Arizona real estate market. People spend more than this at Starbucks in 6 months.

Let’s put the market in perspective: In 1991, the average sales price for a home in the Tucson MLS was $97,352. That number steadily rose over the years to the current average price of $268,984. This is an increase in the average sales price of almost 180%. Those who have owned a home over the past five years have done just fine, seeing a 90.78% change in home values in Arizona and a smaller, although impressive 79.09% increase in Tucson.

New homeowners in Tucson who continue to live in their homes for the long term and those who buy now with the expectation of living in their home for the next 5 to 10 years should be OK, because frankly, Tucson is a better place to live than in the Rustbelt, Snowbelt or California.

I lived in Toronto for 5 years and will take a Tucson summer over another winter in the Great White North any day. There are a lot of retiring Snowbird Boomers who feel the same way. Like it or not, our city will continue to grow.

Opportunity knocks.

Broadmoor is My Neighborhood

2007-06-27T02:00:00.000-06:00

On one early morning walk a few weeks ago, I came upon this sight along the curb of Arroyo Chico. Walking a little further, another brick appeared, then another and another. "Someone went to a lot of time and effort to do this" I thought, and watching a family of quail scurry across the road and hop the brick on the way into the Arroyo, it was confirmed to me that it was time well spent. I later learned that this project was the brainchild of neighbor Cindy Elliott. What a labor of love and in fact, a great example of what is good about our neighborhood.
People make our neighborhood great. From those who drop in on our elderly neighbors to check on their welfare, to the ones who console us when we lose a family member or even a pet, the people in our neighborhood have a sense of community that values others and it is expressed in as many ways as there are households.
Some of our neighbors take on the often thankless job as an officer in the neighborhood association, organizing meetings, editing the newsletter, collecting the modest dues and in the course of duty, defend our neighborhood from unfeeling bureaucracy. Did you know that there once was a plan to turn the Arroyo Chico into a cement culvert? Well the tireless efforts of some of the members of the BBVNA brought a stop to that. The trees that shade us on the east end of the Arroyo are thanks to the vision and efforts of the association too, as are the stone gabions on the west end.
Some of our neighbors keep a close eye on the neighborhood while they are out and about, looking for graffiti and organizing paint-over details. Some keep a watch on the Arroyo Chico, notifying authorities of unusual activities. Don't get me wrong, this is not a neighborhood of snoops, but one with just the right mix of awareness, caring and community.
A great expression of that community is the annual Fourth of July parade. Probably one of the best attended neighborhood holiday parades in town, scores of people brave the Summer heat to express their love for our country by marching in full patriotic regalia around the neighborhood and at the end, share food, drink and stories. We probably have more flags per capita than any other neighborhood, thanks to a patriotic real estate guy who also lives in the neighborhood! (That's me!)
Halloween gives us an example of what the rest of the city thinks about our neighborhood. Apparently well known for its generosity on Oct. 31st, Broadmoor is visited with van loads of children from all over town. It is not unusual to give out hundreds of pieces of candy if you dare answer your door to the various ghosts, goblins and monsters who ring your doorbell.
What do you think makes our neighborhood great? E-mail me and I will include your comments. - Wayne To be continued....

HOA Sign Enforcement Relief

2007-06-21T21:16:00.000-06:00

This just in from the Arizona Association of Realtors:

HOA; FOR SALE SIGNS: SB 1062 was signed into law by the Governor and will become law 90 days after the legislature adjourns. This legislation provides that notwithstanding any provision in planned community or condominium CC&Rs, an association can “not prohibit the indoor or outdoor display of a for sale sign and a sign rider by a unit owner on that owner's property, including a sign that indicates the unit owner is offering the property for sale by owner. The size of a sign offering a property for sale shall be in conformance with the industry standard size sign, which shall not exceed eighteen by twenty-four inches, and the industry standard size sign rider, which shall not exceed six by twenty-four inches.”

This is good news for property owners who have suffered the unreasonable enforcement of restrictive sign ordinances while trying to sell their home. The 48th session of the State Legislature adjourned on June 20 2007.

I Buy my Straw Hats in the Fall

2007-06-19T11:15:00.000-06:00

"I Buy My Straw Hats In The Fall" Wise words from world famous financier and advisor to Presidents, Bernard Baruch when asked about his investment philosophy. Since he was a multi-millionaire when a million dollars was truly a lot of money, it might be profitable to heed his advice, because what was true then is certainly true now.

Smart people buy their winter clothing in the spring when coats and jackets are often half price. Clever buyers pick up boxes of Christmas items after New Years Day, often at savings of 50% or more. Savvy car buyers purchase their new car near the end of the year when the dealers are awaiting new models. Carrying that a step further, those buyers may wait until the end of the month when they negotiate a purchase, since dealers are often more generous then, wanting to bolster their end-of-the-month performance figures.

Timing is also important in Real Estate, and the time to buy, in some parts of town, is now. There are areas in Pima County where there are scores of homes for sale, some priced tens of thousands less than they were selling for a year ago. Some sellers are quite motivated and are offering incentives to home buyers in addition to discount pricing: Down payment assistance, additional appliances and flexible closing terms are more common now.

The people who were not hurt in the real estate boom and “bust” in the Tucson area were those who purchased their home to live in for years to come, because time will take care of them. Those who are suffering now are the speculators and “investors” who came in, often from out of town, and were convinced by someone, with the help of our own manic local media, that there was no limit to the upward move in home prices. The lucky ones have found tenants to live in their houses, reducing the strain on their cash flow. Others however, own vacant homes that were never lived in and in many cases, these homeowners are strapped for cash flow and are highly motivated to sell.

Where are these areas where one can find a great value? There are several around Pima County, and I will highlight one today:

In one particular square mile area in the Southwest side of town, there are, as this is being written, 11 four bedroom homes for sale ranging in price from $215,000 to $375,000. They vary in size from about 2150 square feet to just over 2900 square feet. Many are vacant. All were built in 2004 or later. Some will say, "Who would want to live out there, so far from the center of town?" I used to say the same thing when I drove out to the Northwest Side near Ina and Thornydale and saw homes sprouting up North for as far as the eye could see, or Southeast where Rita Ranch for years was an island to itself, but no more. Now there are food stores, shopping plazas and schools in a place where “nobody would want to live”. I believe that this will be true for the Southwest side of Tucson, just as it was for these other areas which have seen explosive growth.

The questions you should ask yourself are: Will Tucson continue to grow? Is it a place where I would like to live for a while? Does it have advantages over other parts of the country (lifestyle, climate, economy, culture?) For me, the answer is yes to all. Having spent some time in the Northeast part of the country where ice forms on roads and shoveling snow is a duty, not an option, I know that many Boomers living in the Snowbelt are itching to move to the Sunbelt upon retirement. Like it or not, the chances for growth here are good. The Tucson lifestyle is casual and friendly, the economy is healthy, and our wide ranging culture offers something for everyone. And of course, the University of Arizona adds a vitality to our community that other cities without such an institution envy. These factors will, in the long run, assure a healthier real estate market here than in the cold, rustbelt areas. And after 5 recent devastating hurricanes in Florida, Arizona is looking like a pretty good Sunbelt alternative.

So should you speculate and buy as many homes in the Southwest side as you can? That might not be prudent, but if you are looking for a place to live and want to place a bet on future growth and development, in an almost brand new home at a price hugely discounted from last year, this might be an area to study.

If you would like to discuss this in more detail, call or e-mail me and we can set an appointment to talk about this opportunity. As Bernard Baruch said so long ago, “I buy my straw hats in the Fall.” You should too.

Mortgage Rates Inch Upward

2007-03-25T05:57:00.000-06:00

According to CNN, mortgage rates inched upward from 6.14 to 6.16% for the week ending March 22 as new construction rebounded from a 9 year low. Big inventories of resale homes in Pima County are moving downward from December highs, spelling relief in sight for home sellers and giving notice to home buyers.

How's the Market?

2007-03-16T09:26:00.001-06:00

Where do you get your real estate information? With so many opinions and voices, it can be pretty difficult to form your own idea of the current real estate market in Southern Arizona. Here are some thoughts and analysis of what we’ve read, seen, and heard in the past 3 months:

The population of Arizona will continue to grow and Tucson will continue to attract new home buyers, businesses, and investors. Job growth will also continue a pace of steady growth, contributing to the widespread demand for more housing. Despite worries about the market, Tucson’s housing market is strong and steady. Homes that are overpriced and the significant number of homes for sale will likely decline as the market softens through the remainder of 2007.

Buyers and sellers are well aware that the market is not the same as it was 2 years ago. In addition to changing market conditions, interest rates will also affect the number of qualified buyers who will be hesitant to consider non-traditional financing options. So what does all the research and market analysis mean? The simple answer is that housing conditions are returning to normal after an intense period of growth. Buyers are no longer willing to justify the purchase of a home that is overpriced and sellers are realizing that they cannot expect as high of a return on the sale of their home as they could have a couple years ago.

The high inventory of close to 9,000 homes on the market in Tucson indicates that sellers have expected high levels of return and that buyers are unwilling to pay these prices, instead many buyers are waiting for the inevitable—a return to a market where homes are fairly priced. So the rest of 2007 will likely see conditions where sellers will lower prices in order to sell or will take their homes off the market until a later date when supply is not so high. The competition with new home sales will also contribute to the pressure for sellers to lower prices, as new home builders attempt to profit from current market conditions.

As home prices accurately reflect their value, buyers will start making more and more offers. Growth will continue at a steady pace and there should be no worries, despite what the media says.

Via Realty prides itself on knowing the market and in properly assessing the value of your home so that it will sell and so that you will obtain the most value for your home. Our goal is to share our information and experience with you, so that you are confident in the sale of your home. We are also happy to meet with buyers to equip them with the proper knowledge of the market and to aid them as the select a home.

New Townhouse Listing!

2007-03-15T13:35:00.000-06:00

The Pros at Via Realty recently listed a great new affordable townhouse in the near north west side of Tucson. Situated near Romero and Wetmore road, this delightfully updated home is ready for you now! Complete with a beehive fireplace, it a perfect winter home as well as a great place for a first time homebuyer to start out. Here is a link to the listing.

New MLS Search Tools

2007-03-09T07:35:00.000-07:00

You may have noticed some big changes in our web site.... The property search is a lot more user friendly and it is way better organized. Now you can search in categories, Golf properties, Town homes, School Districts and even neighborhoods. This gives the home buyer a bigger choice and also allow the home seller a broader exposure for their property. Check it out at www.moving2tucson.com and let us know how it works for you!

Wayne

Via Realty Knows Golf Too!

2007-02-20T18:54:00.000-07:00

Two of our Agents here at Via Realty are avid golfers. On a typically sunny Tucson day, you may find Adrian Hall relaxing on one of southern Arizona's finest golf courses. Having been a member of three of the local country clubs and walking all of the areas links, Adrian sports a low handicap and a good knowledge of local golf properties. If you want to talk golf and real estate, Adrian is one you can call!

Another Arizona native who loves his clubs is Ed Zapata. Ed also knows his way in and around the local courses and can help you find a place in the sun near a tin cup. Ed is pretty modest about his game, it is as he says, "a work in progress". But heck, a day in Southern Arizona playing golf sure beats shoveling snow, even if you have to chase after an errant ball once and a while! Not only does Ed Z know where you can play golf in Tucson, he can help you find a place to live nearby as well!

Here at Via Realty, we believe we should have fun doing what we do. And if you love to play golf and want to buy real estate in the Tucson area, Adrian and Ed would love to talk to you! Call us at (520) 327-1550. We will get you started on fulfilling your dream, and have fun while you are doing it!

Cold Enough For You?

2007-02-17T07:13:00.000-07:00

This is one of the reasons why we believe that Tucson has a bright real estate future. Record snowfall in the Northeast combined with record cold temperatures will drive retiring Boomers to warmer climes. Florida, a first choice for retiring East Coasters for years, is becoming less desirable because of headline-grabbing violent weather. With property taxes and prices still relatively low in comparison to Metro New York, Boston and Chicago, Arizona is looking better than ever. Tucson is one of the best places to live in the the Grand Canyon State. WDA

Of Bubbles and Such

2007-02-17T05:09:00.000-07:00

The Arizona Daily Star yesterday published an AP story about the current state of the real estate market. Flush with statistics, the story was, at first read, pretty scary. But lets look at the article again, with a more critical eye:

The AP story misleads readers by calling sales volume (the number of houses sold) the "sales pace". I've never heard of "sales pace" in terms of real estate sales. To the careless or casual reader, "sales pace" looks like "sales price" and it appears that prices have declined in double digit percentages nationwide, which is pretty scary, but untrue. Only until later do you learn that nationally, the median price of new homes has declined by less than 3%. (There was no national resale home median price statistic given) After the historic run-up in real estate values that we have had over the past few years, I will take declines like that. The real estate "bubble" that the media is so interested in is not like the stock market bubble where "securities" such as Nortel went from a split adjusted $890 in July 2000 to today's price of $31. A house will not lose 96% of its value in 6 years, like Nortel did, even if it burns down.(Because under it all, is the land!) As I watch the weather reports from the Northeast and Florida too, I am bullish for the long term prospects for Tucson real estate (if we don’t run out of water!) Read the news carefully, it's not as bad as it seems. If you are not a speculator, you should do just fine. WDA