Oh Say Can You See?

Have you noticed the new street signs that are sprouting up all over town? The ones with the little bitty letters on them? Well the new design comes courtesy of the Federal Government!

In a flash of helpful creativity, the Highway Safety people in Washington deemed it necessary to mandate that all new street signs be in upper and lower case to "make them more readable" because "studies showed" that words with both upper and lower case "were easier to read" (Even if the letters are made smaller to accommodate this new style?)

The problem is that with this mandate, the street signs are not being replaced with larger signs to allow for larger letters, and the result is a stylish sign that is now harder to read. This mandate by the way, comes at a time when cities and states are broke, or fast running out of money. And the new sign mandate comes at no small cost. All because a committee of "experts" suggested this style change to a government agency. And the agency ran with the new idea.

Maybe someone at the Highway Safety Administration thought that ALL CAPS street signs was SHOUTING and of course, we couldn't have that.

Links:

USA Today

KHON Honolulu

NY Daily News

One Short Sale Experience with FNMA

Last year I listed a home in central Tucson which ended up with a contract for a short sale. (A short sale is a sale at a price that will not cover the payoff of the existing mortgage). The foreclosure process had begun.

Per the contract for a short sale, the inspection period would not start until we received a notice of approval of the short sale from the asset manager for the mortgage holder (investor). As a rule, buyers do not want to spend money on inspections and an appraisal if they do not know if they can actually buy the home, so that is a condition in a short sale contract.

The contract price was $185K.

Long story short, after about 2 months from receipt of the buyer's contract, the asset manager finally told us that FNMA approved the sale but would only give us one week to close, if not, the home would be sold at auction. The Buyer, with little time for inspections, appraisal, and title work, cancelled the contract. FNMA took the home back.

Almost four months later, the new owner, FNMA, put the home back on the market for 189,900. After languishing on the market for a few months, with several price reductions, it is currently priced near 170K, still without a buyer. This is almost seven months after the home could have been sold for $185K, in July 2010. Seven months of mortgage payments lost, seven months of interest lost.

In fairness, the bank asset managers and FNMA have a big job to do, and are clearly overworked and over-extended. There is not enough staff available to do this important job. But situations like this do avoidable damage to our market and neighborhoods. There have been steps taken to streamline the process but it does not seem too evident to me. Buyers should have a reasonable opportunity to buy a property from a distressed seller without unnecessary roadblocks and delays from the system.

It just seems too easy to take back a property and sell it for less, months later.

Another Reason Not To Live in New York

Reading the Wall Street Journal today, I came upon an interesting article regarding a recent tax case in New York State. It seems that an administrative law judge has found that "vacation homes" in the state are de facto evidence that the homeowner is a resident of New York, regardless of how much time that vacation home owner spends in New York! That means that the out of state home owner is liable for New York income taxes, even if the home owner has not stepped into the home all year! Solution: Sell your New York cottage and buy a winter home in Tucson. No tax penalty here (yet!)

Cash for Clunkers

I was at a dinner party last night and the subject of the popular Cash for Clunkers" came up. A sure fire subsidy for the car manufacturers, the program has instantly boosted sales for the moribund auto industry and has allowed people to trade in their less energy efficient car for a brand new one while enjoying up to $4500 from the government for a down payment.

One of the guests at the party was a technician who works in a local auto shop. He was quite animated in his opposition to the program, primarily because of the waste. You see, when a new car buyer brings in his clunker for trade, the dealership is instructed to drain the oil out of the car, then pour a silica (sand) product into the engine and run it until it quits, effectively "euthanizing" the car. The car is then crushed and sold for scrap.

Not only does this program, in many cases, eliminate a perfectly good car from the marketplace, it also eliminates the opportunity to recycle parts from the car, which of course includes a motor (which might run cleaner than one that it could replace) doors, side panels, alternators, bumpers, radiators, mirrors, wheels, gas tanks, trunk lids, chassis, etc. The waste, he said, is appalling and to label this project as "green" is simply a lie.

Many industries are being given subsidies these days: banks, investment houses, the auto industry and yes, even the real estate industry, with the current $8000 tax credit. If the real estate tax credit program was run in the same manner as "Cash for Clunkers", they would be bulldozing a "clunker" (old?) house with no salvage allowed for every subsidized home sold. That wouldn't be right, and "Cash for Clunkers" isn't right either, especially from a "green" perspective.

What do you think?

Ham Radio Antennas

Todays Az Daily Star had an editorial regarding a recent bill being produced in the AZ State legislature that would allow "reasonable accomodation" for ham radio antennas in neighborhoods governed by HOAs. They came out against the bill.

As you know, I am a real estate broker. I am also a ham radio operator.

A few years ago, I represented a ham operator in the purchase of a town house that was regulated by an HOA. We negotiated with the HOA board to allow a small VHF antenna on the home. We provided a reasonable explanation of the hobby, the public safety aspects and included a picture of the antenna and its dimensions.

The board granted, in writing, permission for my client to erect the antenna, so he bought the place.

It is unfortunate that these days, if someone wants to buy a newer home, it is almost inevitable that it will be governed by a HOA. The power that these associations have over people should be regulated.

Rather than some blanket prohibition, which I believe that many HOA boards insist on, there should be "reasonable accommodation" for certain things. Solar power, clothes lines and yes, ham radio antennas. I believe that this bill is a step in the right direction.

Sewer Fee Update!

This just in from the Tucson Association of Realtors:

Waste Water Fees

At the last Public Affairs Committee meeting the members voted to support Option C of Pima County Wastewater's proposal to raise wastewater fees. On Tuesday the Board of Supervisors voted to adopt Option C as well but are still interested in raising the connection fee which was part of Option D. The four options are laid out below.

• Option A - Increase the volume rate assessed to all customers by 16.75% ($2.81) as early as possible in 2009, by 16.75% ($3.28) in July of 2009 and by 16.75% ($3.83) in January of 2010.

• Option B - Increase the volume rate assessed to all customers by 25.25% ($4.24) as early as possible in 2009, by 9.25% ($1.95) in July of 2009 and by 9.25% ($2.13) in January of 2010.


• Option C- Increase the fixed monthly service fee assessed to all customers by $1.50 and increase the volume rate by 12.75% ($2.14) as early as possible in 2009. Increase the volume rate by 12.75% ($2.41) in July of 2009 and increase the fixed monthly service fee by $1.50 and increase the volume rate by 12.75% ($2.72) in January of 2010.


• Option D - Increase the fixed monthly service fee assessed to all customers by $1.50 and increase the volume rate by 12.75% ($2.14) and increase connection fees by 4% as early as possible in 2009. Increase the volume rate by 12.75% ($2.41) in July of 2009 and increase the fixed monthly service fee by $1.50 and increase the volume rate by 12.75% ($2.72) in January of 2010.

Why Own a Home?

To me, the big motivator for home ownership is lifestyle: privacy, personal enjoyment, and self expression, with a bonus of shelter. With a rental, you get shelter. When you own a home you get more.

My home is worth less than it was two years ago but I still enjoy living here, I am happy that I don't have to ask anyone's permission to hang my photo gallery, paint the interior green, tear up the carpet and replace with tile, or radically change the landscaping. I can stay here for as long as I can make the payments. Someday I will own it outright.

If everything was only about the bottom line, no one would ever buy that fancy red sports car in the showroom, a student's artwork at a school gallery, or that little red brick 1950's charmer on the corner.

The real bottom line is: If you found the place you want, can afford it and you plan on sticking around for a while, go ahead and buy it. Life is too short to live in someone else's house if you don't have to.

Time to Buy?

I have noticed some discussions lately about market timing and our housing market. Some have said that it would be smart to wait for the "bottom" before committing to a purchase. Even if you could predict when the bottom will occur (you can't) there is more to that equation.

For anyone contemplating a home purchase, it is also important for them to factor in the cost of financing in that decision and their ability to pay at that rate.

If I can afford the home I want and have a time horizon longer than a year or two, what difference does it make if I buy at the bottom or a year (or two) early?

Just as home prices can go down, mortgage rates can go up. Today's rates are at historic lows. Buying a home now at a fixed rate that is affordable sounds smart to me.

I bought my first home in 1974, in the midst of a recession during the oil embargo. I was too dumb to know that it was a bad time to buy a house (I was only 21) I was not a speculator, just a kid who wanted a place of his own to live. My time horizon was very long. Never heard of the concept of "flipping". I just liked the idea of no landlord. Although sometimes it was a struggle, I was able to make the payments. Needless to say, I did OK with that house.

I am glad that there was no 24/7 media to talk me out of that purchase in 1974. Although the bottom may not be here yet. there are some good deals out there right now. If you are planning on hanging around the Old Pueblo for a while, buying that home you want and can afford might be a smart thing to do.

Shipping Container Homes!

This is a very interesting concept from a recycling as well as an archetectural standpoint...

Save Rillito Race Track

On Saturday I detoured to the track during a relaxed stroll with a friend down the Rillito River Walk. When we arrived the official at the ticket gate told me that over 10,000 people were there (she had a counter-clicker) and there were still more streaming in. The parking lot was full of cars.

We sat in the grandstand which appeared to be solid (it's steel) and in no danger of collapsing. The overall cosmetic condition was poor, the windows had cobwebs, the bench seats (with backs!) needed painting, as did the rest of the place, but despite the County's neglect, everyone was having a great time, whether in the grandstand or close up, on the rail watching the beautiful horses run by at top speed.

The Catalina mountains are perfectly framed in the big glass window array of the grandstand. The large grassy infield sports 4 soccer areas with goals, so the site serves more than one purpose.

I signed a petition to save this historic landmark. The public should get on board too to preserve this 1940's era part of our heritage before it is leveled and sold to the highest bidder. As one petition signer said to me, "This place belongs to the people, not the Board of Supervisors". I agree.

The Phone is Ringing

Recently I wrote about "The January Effect" where I described the historic trend in our Real Estate market place where sales activity increased after the new year started. This has been vividly demonstrated to me this week with a ringing phone from buyers calling on our listings and happily, an offer that was negotiated to a contract on one of them.

It is good to set aside all of the doom and gloom for a while and just do our work. In my business, there are people out there who recognise the opportunities in our market place (lowered prices and historic low interest rates) and are acting on it. Things will be better in the months to come.

Tucson is a great place to live. Lots of people know this. I received an e-mail from a friend in Indiana this morning and he said that it was minus 35F there today! I am taking our sunshine dividend to the bank, knowing that Tucson will continue to grow, probably at a faster pace than some other parts of the country, and our real estate market will recover. And the weather is better here. That's one of the blessings that should be on our counting list.

Check Your Auto License Plate Frame!

A new law will come into effect on Jan 1 2009 which you should be aware of. Here are the details from the AZ DOT Motor Vehicle Division:

License Plate Holder Law - State law* requires that the state name at the top of Arizona license plates must be visible. Any license plate holder or cover that prevents the license plate from being clearly legible, is in violation of this new law.
* A.R.S. 28-2354(B.)

Fines in Pima County could be up to $133 per violation! Other municipalities may have different fines. In a casual survey around my neighborhood, a majority of the vehicles that I inspected have license plate frames that violate this law. It is a simple thing to remove the plate and frame and re-attach the license without the frame or use a new frame that does not obscure the information on the license plate.

In another "fine" matter, Before the U of A vs ASU football game a few weeks ago, I spied City of Tucson workers busily citing parking law violators in the Sam Hughes neighborhood. Did you know that you may not park within 5 feet of a driveway entrance or 10 feet from an alley entrance? If you didn't know this, you could be surprised with a $180 parking ticket. Beware!

The January Effect

Chart: Total Sales Units vs Month 2004-2008

When one looks at the Tucson MLS statistics, an interesting pattern is quite evident. In the past 4 years, closed sales numbers hit bottom in January, then begin to climb again in February and March, peaking within the next few months.

The peak occurred in June in 2004, 2005 and 2006, with sales numbers March, April and May not far behind. The peak in 2007 occurred in May, but the numbers for February March and April were also not far behind. The numbers for 2008, while down considerably from previous years, had a significant percentage jump in February and March, peaking in June with 1034 closed sales, slightly behind May which had 1,025 closed sales.

Since there is a lead time between when a buyer looks at and decides to make an offer on a home and the closing, (lets say 45 days for argument's sake) you might conclude that it would be wise to have your home on the market in January to catch those buyers and the others that follow in February, March and April. I would agree with that conclusion.

Interest rates are now at historic lows, there is a "First Time Buyer" Federal tax credit available through April 2009 (as much as $7500 for married buyers who file jointly and $3750 for those married or not who file individually) Inventory has been reduced considerably since last year. History points to an improved market in the early part of this year, compared with the previous months, although the actual numbers may still be below last years, YTD. Regardless, a window of opportunity is opening for those who want to sell their home now, and January is the time to begin.

Census Releases Growth Figures. AZ in 2nd Place!

This just in from the US Census , Arizona comes in second, behind Nevada in population growth (percentage wise) since 2000. adding almost 1.4 million souls in that time frame.

Arizona's actual growth in population (not percentages) since July 1 2007 was 147,000, fifth behind Texas, California, North Carolina, and Georgia. Here is a link.

Check out These Homes

One of the ways that we promote our client's listings is to design and publish e-flyers. Here are three of our most recent ones:

2005 4 BR 2 BA Home for under $100 per Square Foot!

Big East Central House with Guest House!

Cute East Side 3BR with RV Parking!

They have been submitted to Oodle, Google Base, Vast, Yahoo, HotPads, Trulia, Zillow, Geebo, OLX, Backpage, DotHomes, CyberHomes, FrontDoor, and others, to get the maximum web exposure possible.

Thought you would find this interesting!

More Good News

More good mortgage news from the Federal Government. In a move to further push mortgage rates down, and stimulate the housing market, Treasury Secretary Paulson is considering a new plan to reduce mortgage rates. Further implementing the purchase of mortgage backed securities, the move could push rates to 4.5%, according to an unnamed government official. Here is more from Bloomberg News.

We have seen substantial reduction in mortgage loan rates in the past two weeks, one lender we follow had a Dec 2 quote of 5.25%, APR 5.404% for a 30 year fixed conventional loan and 4.875%, 5.135% for a fixed 15 year conventional mortgage!

Refinances are gaining steam and despite the cloudy take in the article, lenders do have money to lend and are offering it to qualified buyers with decent credit.

This is a big opportunity for someone who has been sitting on the fence waiting for a good reason to buy a home.

Change is Here

Well a lot has happened since my last post. We have elected a new president, the financial markets are in a tizzy and yet interest rates and the local housing market have been better than what many people might expect.

A local lender e-mailed me his rate card yesterday an it showed that there has been a downward move in the 30 year fixed conforming mortgage to 5.875 with an APR just over 6% @ 6.035. 15 year checking in at 5.5% with an APR of 5.765%. This is cheap mortgage money!

I remember when I started in the real estate business in 1989 and we were praying for single digit rates. It took a while for that to happen. The market was terrible, with the collapse of the S&L industry, the RTC properties flooding the market, IBM moving out of Tucson and difficult credit policies. Deja vu with a twist! As we got through those challenges, we will go through this one too.

The Tucson Association of Realtors came out with a new statistics report for October and although showing a slight decrease in sales since Oct 2007, it also shows a 4.16% increase in sales price over Sept 08. Listing inventory is slightly higher, but well below a year ago, which is good, since it lowers competition for your listing. The report is available on our web site. Click on the "Market Report" to view the pdf document.

Yesterday I viewed about a dozen properties in the central city. One thing that I noticed is that the properties that were priced right were being shown by agents who were working with buyers. Two things: pricing is key to activity and there are buyers out there!

Finally, with a new administration coming in next year, it might be wise to schedule an appointment with your tax person or CPA to get an early start on a strategy in the event that there are changes in tax policy. Currently we enjoy a $250K exemption in capital gains on the sale of a primary residence ($500K for married couples) This could change. Also, keep an eye on any proposed changes in the capital gains rate for investment properties.

Despite all of the negativity out there, I still see positive things ahead for our marketplace. Tucson is a great place to live, the weather is marvelous and Arizona is still a net gainer in population. We have the U of A and DM, not to mention Raytheon. There are buyers out there, some with cash. (We closed on a cash buyer last month who relocated to Tucson) Home prices are stabilizing and if you are a buyer, there are some great deals out there for you. I am counting my blessings.

Words of Wisdom

A few days ago, I had to drop off my car at the shop. Rather than take a taxi or enlist a friend for a ride home, I decided to walk. Holy Hope cemetery was near my route, so I took a slight detour through this old Tucson landmark. It's a peaceful place, with huge trees and cool, moist grass. It is also the resting place for many of Tucson's famous and not so famous pioneers.

I have always enjoyed looking at old headstones. It's a perfect way to get a bit of history and sometimes to find some wisdom. I found both that morning.

During my walk, I encountered the grave site of Clyde Wanslee. Mr Wanslee, who died in 1984 at the age of 70, had a car dealership located at the 5 Points intersection south of Downtown. The thing that I remember most about this car lot was his sign "Ugly but Honest" This lot was a fixture in the Tucson landscape for many years, and Clyde sold a lot of cars.

One thing that I learned at Mr Wanslee's grave site was that he was a champion cowboy.

And now for the wisdom: This was also engraved on Mr Wanslee's headstone:

"A good name is more desirable than great riches. To be esteemed is better than silver or gold". Prov 22-1

RIP Mr Wanslee. Thanks for the reminder.

Tucson a "Bicycle Friendly" Town!

The League of American Bicyclists named Tucson and Pima County as "Bicycle Friendly" giving the region a "gold" rating for education, engineering, enforcement and encouragement of bicycle oriented issues. Here is a link.

FICO and CLUE

What are FICO and CLUE? When you hang out with real estate people, you will hear a lot of lingo or jargon. Two very important words that often appear in real estate conversations these days are FICO and CLUE, and it is helpful for you to be CLUED-in to make your real estate experience more successful.

FICO®

This is from myfico.com:
FICO® scores are your credit rating.
They range from 300-850, higher is better
Most lenders base approval on them
Higher scores mean lower interest rates
FICO® scores are calculated based on your rating in five general categories:
Payment history, amount owed, length of credit history, new credit, types of credit used.
For the full scoop, go to myfico.com.

CLUE® Reports

CLUE reports are insurance history reports on losses associated with personal property. Of particular interest are losses due to water damage in a home. CLUE reports are important to home buyers and sellers. A home with a bad CLUE report will be hard to insure, and as a result, hard to sell, and to buy. It is very important to know about this issue and prepare your purchase contract with this as a contingency when you are purchasing a home. This from Choice Trust:
"The C.L.U.E. ®Personal Property report provides a five year history of losses associated with an individual and his/her personal property. The following data will be identified for each loss: date of loss, loss type, and amount paid along with general information such as policy number, claim number and insurance company name. " For more info click here!