I Buy my Straw Hats in the Fall

"I Buy My Straw Hats In The Fall" Wise words from world famous financier and advisor to Presidents, Bernard Baruch when asked about his investment philosophy. Since he was a multi-millionaire when a million dollars was truly a lot of money, it might be profitable to heed his advice, because what was true then is certainly true now.

Smart people buy their winter clothing in the spring when coats and jackets are often half price. Clever buyers pick up boxes of Christmas items after New Years Day, often at savings of 50% or more. Savvy car buyers purchase their new car near the end of the year when the dealers are awaiting new models. Carrying that a step further, those buyers may wait until the end of the month when they negotiate a purchase, since dealers are often more generous then, wanting to bolster their end-of-the-month performance figures.

Timing is also important in Real Estate, and the time to buy, in some parts of town, is now. There are areas in Pima County where there are scores of homes for sale, some priced tens of thousands less than they were selling for a year ago. Some sellers are quite motivated and are offering incentives to home buyers in addition to discount pricing: Down payment assistance, additional appliances and flexible closing terms are more common now.

The people who were not hurt in the real estate boom and “bust” in the Tucson area were those who purchased their home to live in for years to come, because time will take care of them. Those who are suffering now are the speculators and “investors” who came in, often from out of town, and were convinced by someone, with the help of our own manic local media, that there was no limit to the upward move in home prices. The lucky ones have found tenants to live in their houses, reducing the strain on their cash flow. Others however, own vacant homes that were never lived in and in many cases, these homeowners are strapped for cash flow and are highly motivated to sell.

Where are these areas where one can find a great value? There are several around Pima County, and I will highlight one today:

In one particular square mile area in the Southwest side of town, there are, as this is being written, 11 four bedroom homes for sale ranging in price from $215,000 to $375,000. They vary in size from about 2150 square feet to just over 2900 square feet. Many are vacant. All were built in 2004 or later. Some will say, "Who would want to live out there, so far from the center of town?" I used to say the same thing when I drove out to the Northwest Side near Ina and Thornydale and saw homes sprouting up North for as far as the eye could see, or Southeast where Rita Ranch for years was an island to itself, but no more. Now there are food stores, shopping plazas and schools in a place where “nobody would want to live”. I believe that this will be true for the Southwest side of Tucson, just as it was for these other areas which have seen explosive growth.

The questions you should ask yourself are: Will Tucson continue to grow? Is it a place where I would like to live for a while? Does it have advantages over other parts of the country (lifestyle, climate, economy, culture?) For me, the answer is yes to all. Having spent some time in the Northeast part of the country where ice forms on roads and shoveling snow is a duty, not an option, I know that many Boomers living in the Snowbelt are itching to move to the Sunbelt upon retirement. Like it or not, the chances for growth here are good. The Tucson lifestyle is casual and friendly, the economy is healthy, and our wide ranging culture offers something for everyone. And of course, the University of Arizona adds a vitality to our community that other cities without such an institution envy. These factors will, in the long run, assure a healthier real estate market here than in the cold, rustbelt areas. And after 5 recent devastating hurricanes in Florida, Arizona is looking like a pretty good Sunbelt alternative.

So should you speculate and buy as many homes in the Southwest side as you can? That might not be prudent, but if you are looking for a place to live and want to place a bet on future growth and development, in an almost brand new home at a price hugely discounted from last year, this might be an area to study.

If you would like to discuss this in more detail, call or e-mail me and we can set an appointment to talk about this opportunity. As Bernard Baruch said so long ago, “I buy my straw hats in the Fall.” You should too.