The January Effect

Chart: Total Sales Units vs Month 2004-2008

When one looks at the Tucson MLS statistics, an interesting pattern is quite evident. In the past 4 years, closed sales numbers hit bottom in January, then begin to climb again in February and March, peaking within the next few months.

The peak occurred in June in 2004, 2005 and 2006, with sales numbers March, April and May not far behind. The peak in 2007 occurred in May, but the numbers for February March and April were also not far behind. The numbers for 2008, while down considerably from previous years, had a significant percentage jump in February and March, peaking in June with 1034 closed sales, slightly behind May which had 1,025 closed sales.

Since there is a lead time between when a buyer looks at and decides to make an offer on a home and the closing, (lets say 45 days for argument's sake) you might conclude that it would be wise to have your home on the market in January to catch those buyers and the others that follow in February, March and April. I would agree with that conclusion.

Interest rates are now at historic lows, there is a "First Time Buyer" Federal tax credit available through April 2009 (as much as $7500 for married buyers who file jointly and $3750 for those married or not who file individually) Inventory has been reduced considerably since last year. History points to an improved market in the early part of this year, compared with the previous months, although the actual numbers may still be below last years, YTD. Regardless, a window of opportunity is opening for those who want to sell their home now, and January is the time to begin.